Dreamcast: Far From Dead

   If you're one of those people who thinks that the Dreamcast is going to 
disappear in a flash of lights and a poof of smoke now that the PS2 has been
released, think again.  In the weeks and months leading up to the release of
the PlayStation 2, sales of Dreamcast hardware and software more than 
doubled.  Actually, the 156 percent sales growth figure is closer to triple 
than double.  What do you think is going to happen now that over 500,000 
PlayStation 2 pre-orders have gone unfulfilled and millions of other gamers 
who might want to buy a PS2 simply can't due to Sony's production problems?
   I'll tell you what's going to happen: More and more gamers are going to 
"settle for the next best thing" and buy a Dreamcast.  They're going to be 
enticed by the prospect of online gaming with NFL 2K1 and Quake 3, the great
value of the $150 price point, and the fact that the price essentially drops
to zero if you sign up for 18 months of SegaNet access.
   Sega's line of $20 "All-Star" games also serves to make the Dreamcast a 
much more attractive purchase for mainstream consumers.  If you pinpoint 
exactly when the original PlayStation's success began to snowball, it was 
when a wide variety of older, but still high-quality games started hitting 
the marketplace with $20 price points.  With older Dreamcast games like 
Sonic Adventure and Crazy Taxi currently selling very well at $20, the 
Dreamcast's appeal among casual gamers (and thus its total installed base) 
will continue to increase in the future.
   Even if none of this happens, the current mark of 2.5 million Dreamcast 
systems in US homes is nothing to sneeze at.  That's still enough people to 
support a viable software market, as evidenced by the astronomical sales of 
NFL 2K1.  NFL 2K1 is actually out-selling Madden for the PS1 despite the 
fact that there are over 25 million PlayStation systems in US homes compared
to 2.5 million Dreamcasts.  That just goes to show that a low installed base
doesn't necessarily prevent high software sales, which is where video game 
hardware companies make most of their money.
   Fortunately for gamers, the Dreamcast software market doesn't begin and 
end with NFL 2K1.  As far as potentially awesome future games are concerned,
this year will see the release of Shenmue, Grandia 2, and NBA 2K1; and next 
year will see the release of Black & White, Phantasy Star Online, Unreal 
Tournament, and Virtua Tennis 2.
   Granted, that's not a list of 50 games, but it's an exciting enough list 
to ensure that the Dreamcast is $150 well-spent for any hardcore gamer.  The
added dynamic of online gameplay adds to the excitement of every game on the
list above except for Shenmue and Grandia 2, which look to be strong 
single-player experiences.
   Online gaming won't be possible on any other console system until late 
2001.  Even then, the likes of Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo will just be 
getting their feet wet in the proverbial pool of online console gaming, 
while SegaNet will probably have transformed itself from its current "great 
performance" mark to "almost flawless performance."  
   With Sony recently admitting that not a single broadband game is in 
development for the PlayStation 2 at this time because the infrastructure 
isn't in place yet, what does that say about the chances of meaningful 
online gaming on the PS2 before the end of 2001?  You mean to tell me that 
the world's first broadband-only Internet games, which should be 
revolutionary in both concept and execution, are going to be developed in 
less than one year when even crap like Mario Party 3 can't be developed in 
less than one year?
   Unfortunately, online gaming isn't the only noticeable trend among most 
of the upcoming Dreamcast games mentioned above.  Almost all of those games 
are going to be published by Sega itself, not a third-party publisher.  This
reflects upon the fact that the vast majority of third-party publishers are 
going to abandon the Dreamcast before the end of 2001 if they haven't done 
so already.  It's sad, but true.
   However, this doesn't mean that the system is going to wither up and die 
anytime soon.  The Saturn was a complete failure in the US right from the 
beginning, but Sega continued to support it until its dying breath several 
years later.  The Dreamcast market is nowhere near its dying breath and is 
actually very healthy right now, so I expect to see Sega support the system 
for a very long time to come.
   Anyone who has played a lot of Sega games over the years knows that the 
quality of the average Sega-developed game is almost as good as the average 
Nintendo-developed game.  And unlike Nintendo, Sega isn't the single worst 
company in the world in terms of releasing its products on time.  Sega makes
more games than Nintendo and does so in a much more timely fashion, while 
still offering high quality across the board.
   The only area in which Sega desperately needs to improve is advertising.
There have been a few exceptions like the commercial for the original NFL 
2K, but for the most part, Sega's Dreamcast commercials have just plain 
sucked.  Instead of showing actual gameplay footage, most of the commercials
have conveyed cryptic messages that alienate most potential customers, 
except of course the hardcore gamers who already own the system anyway.  
Still, mediocre marketing is better than no marketing at all (cough, Sony, 
cough), and replacing the stupid "It's thinking" slogan with the return of 
the Sega Scream was a good start for Sega's new campaign.
   I hope you haven't interpreted this editorial as being equivalent to 
message board postings that say, "Sega Rules, Sony Sucks!" because that is 
certainly not the message I'm trying to convey.  When this generation of 
video game systems has run its course, there is no doubt in my mind that
there will be more PlayStation 2s sold than Dreamcasts.  There's also no 
doubt in my mind that the Dreamcast is going to put up one hell of a fight 
and remain a viable system for a lot longer than you probably think.

Send your thoughts on this editorial to ivan@mastergamer.com

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